Excess deaths in the Italian Local Labour Market Areas during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic

Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic hit Italy particularly hard. This Working Paper explores the mortality data at the municipal level published by ISTAT since May 4th 2020 in updated versions. The study analyses mortality data focusing on Local Labour Market Areas (Sistemi Locali del Lavoro – Sll), aggregations of municipalities defined independently of the administrative structure of the territory and based on the commuting flows for work data of the 2011 population census. We observe a sharp increase in the number of deaths at the national level towards the end of March 2020. However, this increase is distributed heterogeneously over the territory. Local Labour Market Areas of northern Italy and in particular those of Lombardy, the epicentre of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy during the first wave, have been strongly affected, while the impact on mortality was decidedly less in other areas of Italy. This is probably due to the generalized lockdown and social distancing measures adopted at the national level at the onset of the pandemic. By analysing the data, taking into account the changes in the number of deaths in 2020 compared to the average of the previous five years, we endeavour to show the demographic and geographic variability of the phenomenon. Analysis by gender and age shows that the increase in deaths was generally greater for men than for women, especially between the ages of 70 and 89. An even lower mortality compared to the 5 previous years during the first wave of the pandemic is observed for men and women under the age of 50. The largest increase can be observed in northern Italy, particularly in some areas of Lombardy – including Bergamo, Cremona, Albino and Grumello del Monte – where mortality has more than doubled compared to previous years. The larger cities, on the other hand, do not differ too much from the past; the only exception is Milan with an increase by the end of March. In all likelihood, the direct effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have also been compounded by the difficulty of the regional health systems in maintaining their usual performance, thus contributing to the increase of mortality by other causes of death. The analysis carried out indicate the necessity of monitoring data that take into account the economic and social relationships that characterise the territories, to allow more targeted and calibrated analysis to understand better the COVID-19 pandemic.